Wonging Out
If you read Playing BJ as a Business by Revere, he suggest 30 units up or down to be your quitting point. Keep in mind that times have changed since his time and there are different opinions on this. If you use RPC (level 2) the advantage changes approx 0.50% per 1 TC. Depending upon the rules of the game you play, if TC=0 giving you a -0.40 disadvantage, then a TC=-2 would be approx -1.40% disadvantage.
Check out Blackjack Attack or other high quality publications, they usually have charts with adv/disadv broken down by rules.
If you get CVCX by Qfit you can run the sims for wonging and play all. There is a big difference in each neg count you play. Take a look at these. The min bet dropped to keep the same 0.5 kelly factor
then far as "wondering at what point do i call it a day if i cant win", sort of thing i guess you probably know that might be considered a voodoo subject amongst the orthodox crowd. i think most would tell you to keep playing until your trip bankroll can no longer support doubling down and splitting. they will say as long as your playing with an advantage, not to worry you'll eventually come out on top of the game. but they might also advise you on ways of lowering your ROR. probably advise you on wonging as you've already alluded to above.
well, i've got a not so big bankroll as well. i'll just tell you what my philosphy is, what i aim to do and often enough don't succeed in doing. i have a set trip bankroll, $300 and a $6000 lifetime bankroll. i just play $5 min tables or lower. tawkin six and eight deck shoes here.
me, i figure i can lose the trip bankroll for 'now' and still survive a while. so most trips i might be willing to play until i lose the trip bankroll. that's not always my frame of mind but usually (sometimes i'm just not even willing to lose that much). my spread is pretty much 1-8 but i'm not very disciplined on that. i might chicken out and just go 1-5. my counting is well not really counting. i just mentally 'gauge' the richness of the aces and faces left to be dealt with this nebulous fuzzy count process i do. then i might make a 'calculated' gamble when i think the time is right. but i can count and bet orthodox and sometimes do. just depends. lol.
anyway, so but one thing i do know with good accuracy is what a perfect counter with a 1-8 spread according to number of hands played would expect for the games i play. if i achieve the expectation or better of said perfect counter with my voodoo approach by hook or crook then i'm out of Dodge unless the pack remaining to be dealt is obviously rich in aces & faces. it always surprises me how often just playing basic strategy and flat betting that i find myself exceeding in a very short period of time the expectation of a perfect counter for a much longer time period. by getting out of Dodge i don't mean necessarily that i go home, maybe just exit that table (with those winnings in my pocket). maybe i'll fool around a while and then start out a fresh table ready to be dealt, maybe (rarely) i'll wong in on a table. my hopes and dreams far as doing it that way is based on a knowledge that for six and eight deck games it's pretty much the case that 70% or so of the time your gonna be dealing with a disadvantageous count. so i figure most times that i exit a table with a profit comparable to a perfect counter that i'm probably leaving a disavantageous situation. alternatively, when i start out a shoe and the 'count' is going negative, i might stay if i'm just lucky and winning, but if i' start losing in that situation i'll bail on such a table as well.
so most of my trips i only plan to stay about 3 hours. i know how much a perfect counter spreading 1-8 can expect to make in that much time. if i make that much i'll usually go home early.
well anyway at the bottom of the post in the link below is a spread sheet that along with a good simulator such as cvcx can help one figure out things such as expectations and standard deviation for a given number of rounds. it maybe could help you figure out when a good time to get out of Dodge might be.
Wonging out of negative counts won't drop your EV.
It WILL drop your variance, and therefore your risk of ruin a lot. Certainty correlation goes up a lot with wonging. That's why back-counting 6 deckers can be better for a small bankroll than a good single or double deck game.
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